CLA Connect Open Forum

Topic: Latest Natural Gas prices... 

1.  Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
Have you guys seen the drop in NG prices this past week?

The Henry Hub price is down to $2.61 and expect it to go lower as the winter will soon be coming to an end.

Good news. Say thank you Wildcatters who developed and perfected Fracking.

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Paulie B
Owner/Operator
Mr Machine
New York City, NY
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2.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
Paulie;

And when it does drop how long will it take before we see it manifested on our monthly bill?

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Deward Stout
Store Owner/ Employee
Hurricane Laundromat & Storage
Hurricane UT
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3.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
Edited by Paulie B 11 days ago
Deward,

That's a very good question.

I imagine the utilities will keep most of the drop, being loathe to pass the savings on to consumers.

Which leads me to another interesting question....How many Mat owners will pass the savings on to our customers?

I think what's more likely, is that mats will  be able to hold off on dryer increases for a while. Unless other expenses go through the roof. I do expect to see inflation rising as the economy is heating up a little too fast now. So lower energy costs can help moderate that somewhat.


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Paulie B
Owner/Operator
Mr Machine
New York City, NY
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4.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
So what is everyone paying retail?

$ 3.63 on my December 2017 bill
$ 3.21 on my January 2018 bill

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K J
Store Owner/ Employee
Binghamton
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5.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
are you asking the price per therm.  if so, in So Cal it is approx 78 cents per therm.

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JEFF CAMPBELL
owner
The Laundry Basket and Laundry Basket/South
San Clemente, Ca

LADERA RANCHLADERA RANCH
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6.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
If I recall, (too lazy to get up off the couch and check a bill)

gas as is only about 20% of the bill,

the rest is transportation.

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MICHAEL SAYER
Store Owner/ Employee
DORVAL QC
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7.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
I pay 12.36 cents canadian per cubic meter

too many conversions for me!

gas:         $224.72
total bill:   $1,067.83


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MICHAEL SAYER
Store Owner/ Employee
DORVAL QC
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8.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
My therm price was

.363 for December 2017
.321 for January 2018

This is Upstate NY

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K J
Store Owner/ Employee
Binghamton
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9.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
Most natural gas distributors have Purchased Gas Adjustment clauses which move up or down as the wholesale cost of gas changes.  Some of these clauses are adjusted monthly, others quarterly and I believe a few are still annually.  As a regulated monopoly the distributors are allowed to earn a return on their invested capital, recover operating expenses but are generally a pass-through on wholesale cost of natural gas since the gas cost fluctuates over time and makes such a large part of the overall natural gas service costs.  There are gnerally quite ridgid prudence reviews on the distributor process and procedures on gas procurement to ensure best efforts are made to have adequate supplies of natural and the cost is reasonable.

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EDWARD MCINTYRE
Store Owner

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10.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
Unfortunately, I bet they won't lower our bills.  My natural gas price increased 17% last year.  I'll be surprised if it drops.  Similar to gasoline prices.  Gas goes up .25 to .35 cents a gallon, but only goes down pennies at a time.

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glen francis

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11.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
The collapse in NG prices this past week had nothing to do with Supply and Demand, but reflective of the broader sell-off in all assets: stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.  It's Fall 2008 all over again.  The question is whether it becomes Spring 2009.

https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/natural-gas.aspx


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CHS Laundry
Non-Industry
Columbia SC
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12.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 11 days ago
You are correct in noting that some of the NG selloff is tied to the broader market.

However, the wall Street correction was a healthy thing because stock prices were definitely getting ahead of themselves.
We needed a correction so "irrational exuberance" could be extinguished.
Wall st got nervous about interest rates.

I do believe NG prices will rise a little in the long term as more industry gears up from the incentives coming from both Congress Tax Pkg, and Trump, but NG prices usually drop as the winter winds down, which will be soon.

One of the great buffers that Fracking offers is that when prices go too high, more wells come online, which in turn brings prices back down.

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Paulie B
Owner/Operator
Mr Machine
New York City, NY
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13.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 10 days ago
Edited by Chris Ward 10 days ago
Paulie, thank you for getting the discussion going and there have been some great points made that I wanted to comment on:

1) Fracking is a big reason we haven't seen higher NYMEX or Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices for the last few years (with the exception of the Polar Vortex in 2015.)

2) Deward, to answer your question there is normally a several month lag before you will see your utility Natural Gas price change.  For those store owners who are buying their Gas from a 3rd party supplier, the change can been seen in the next months Natural Gas Price.

3) KJ, are those utility prices/therm in NY or do you buy your Natural Gas from a 3rd Party Supplier?  Your price/therm is great, if you're including all costs associated with your Natural Gas Price.

4) Jeff, I would be happy to assist you to see if there are 3rd Party Supplier options in So Cal.  It will depend on what utility is currently supplying your Natural Gas.

5) Michael, same goes for you as there are options in Canada to use a 3rd Party Supplier instead of the utility but there are only select provinces that offer deregulation.

6) Edward is exactly right in regard to the Purchase Gas Adjustment (PGA) which is your Natural Gas Price from the utility.  It can also be called Gas Cost Adjustment (GCA.)  This is what you pay for the coomodity portion of your Natural Gas.  In addition to swings in NYMEX Gas Prices, utilities include other costs in these figures that cause them to be higher than market prices such as:  hedges made by the utility and non-payment costs from their customers.  Not all utilities are regulated, but the ones that are don't leave the consumer any choice on negotiating their price.

7)  Main causes of last weeks collapse IMO were because of the actual temperatures we have been experiencing in February.  Several days before January there were reports of Arctic weather moving across the entire USA, which caused prices for February to jump up.  Many of you buying Natural Gas on an Index Price from a 3rd Party Supplier will see a jump in your Natural Gas price from January to February.  There were also reports that the entire month of February was predicted to experience below average temperatures, another reason for the price jump.  The actual result has been average temperatures so far and Natural Gas prices have reflected that by almost $1.00/MMBtu or $0.10/therm.  February NYMEX close was $3.63/MMBtu or $0.363/therm compared to $2.59/MMBtu or $0.259/therm currently.  Supply and Demand will always have an effect on Prices, but there are also many other factors that can affect the price which have been mentioned in the above posts.

Hope this helps and hope everyone has a great week.

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Chris Ward
Distributor Employee
Incite Energy-Energy Procurement for Commercial Businesses
Houston TX
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14.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 10 days ago
Thanks everyone.

I get my NG from a company called Dominion Energy. I was told the main office is in Tennessee. They bought out the company before them called Questar in early 2017,who was the only supplier here in the west. They owned all the infrastructure from wells drilling to pipe lines to our places. They bill us in DTH= Decatherms. A DTH is 1 million BTUs
For my January 2018 bill I paid $8.93 per DTH for December 2017 bill I paid $9.12 per DTH.
for November it was $8.38. October it was $7.42.
That is my delivered price with ALL taxes and fees.
They tell me the reason it changes is because of temperature and expansion.

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Deward Stout
Store Owner/ Employee
Hurricane Laundromat & Storage
Hurricane UT
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15.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 10 days ago
Chris,

Thank you for an excellent detailed, and professional analysis of the NG industry!

I would like to point out my experience over the years with 3rd party suppliers: 

Some of them are crooked! They will give you a lowball price to hook you, and after a couple of months they will sneak their prices up. They rely on the fact that most people will not check their rates after a couple of months into the deal.
Even if you have a clearly worded contract (which is rare with these deals), they will simply violate their own contract!

I have been cheated by 3 different energy suppliers (aka ESCO's) over the years. I had to complain to the CEO of Con Edison to get out of those sleazy contracts, so beware because they are still operating!

The one honest company I found, which I stuck with was Ambit Energy, headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

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Paulie B
Owner/Operator
Mr Machine
New York City, NY
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16.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 10 days ago
I remember a case where a third party arranged better gas rates,

but it ended up going bankrupt, and the gas went up to market price :-(

here in Quebec, we do things differently:

the ONLY gas company is owned by...........

the ONLY electric company !  ;-((((

be be well all,



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MICHAEL SAYER
Store Owner/ Employee
DORVAL QC
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17.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 10 days ago
My rates per therm is through a 3rd. party and is only the cost of gas.
My delivery charges still come through my local utility.

I have used Empire Natural Gas Corp in Greene New York for quite a few years now.

Like others stated watch out for 3rd. party suppliers and keep a close eye on your bills.

The first 2 suppliers I had tried to screw me over bad and the 2nd. one tried to increase my rate in the 2nd. year of a ( 2 year "SIGNED CONTRACT")

They even tried lawsuits with their big lawyers and collection agencies to no avail.
They all laughed when I sent them a copy of my signed contract.


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K J
Store Owner/ Employee
Binghamton
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18.  RE: Latest Natural Gas prices...

Posted 9 days ago
Check out this article...Looks like America will be kicking OPEC & Russia's butts for quite a while.
The Shale oil producers are now leaner and meaner than ever and have a lower break even price which is driving OPEC nuts.

Obviously, as with more oil production, so goes Natural gas production.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/13/investing/oil-glut-us-production-iea/index.html

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Paulie B
Owner/Operator
Mr Machine
New York City, NY
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